Price growth in PCL, Greater London & England and Wales 

Liam Monaghan, Managing Director of LCP Private Office, comments on Prime Central London

Despite a more positive market sentiment since the start of the year and a flurry of new stock on the market, property prices have remained flat across the UK, particularly in Prime Central London (PCL) with nominal 0.1% growth in February, compared to 0.4% in England and Wales. Annual price change over the 12 months to February paints a slightly more positive picture, with values across England and Wales rising 3.1%, though PCL saw a more modest 0.4% increase.

Transaction volumes have been similarly subdued. In the 12 months to November 2024, sales in PCL were down -21.9% on the previous year, averaging just 57 sales per week. Greater London saw the least dramatic annual decline of -14.3%, whilst sales across England & Wales were down -18%.

According to recent Bank of England data, interest rate cuts and the upcoming stamp duty deadline led to a surge in mortgage lending at the end of last year, so it is anticipated that transaction volumes will increase in the first quarter of 2025. This stamp duty rush has been particularly prevalent in the first-time buyer market, but we have seen more momentum and confidence in PCL as a result. At LCP, we have observed increased search enquiries since the start of the year, particularly from pied-à-terre purchasers, both international buyers wanting a base in London, as well as some domestic buyers, buying to use when seeing their children who live there.

Looking ahead, market commentators are predicting a gradual recovery in PCL, with price growth forecasts of up to 3% in 2025, supported by further base rate cuts and easing mortgage rates. This is anticipated to unlock pent-up buyer demand and increase competition, resulting in sellers’ demands being satisfied.

Prime Central London Performance By ‘Village’ and by property type

Most PCL villages have seen annual price growth, whilst values remain at discounts to their 2015 peak, especially in the flat market, with prime locations including South Kensington, Chelsea and Knightsbridge showing discounts of -15.3%, -13.4% and -12.7% respectively.

Despite a slight dip in the average flat value (-0.7%), Pimlico continues to be popular with homeowners and investors as it offers good value when compared to its higher value neighbours, Chelsea and Belgravia, with prices at a considerable -14.3% discount to their 2015 peak and the opportunity for sustained long-term price growth.

Bayswater was the best performing village in terms of combined price growth across both flats and houses, with 1.4% and 4.5% annual increases respectively. Whilst flat prices here remain 9.7% below their 2015 peak, growing demand in recent years has pushed house values 2.2% above their peak, one of only two PCL villages to experience this. The popularity of this location has been bolstered by the £3bn regeneration of Queensway, including the redevelopment of The Whiteley, one of London’s first department stores, into a mixed-use development featuring luxury residences, shops, restaurants, a cinema, and a Six Senses hotel and spa. Bayswater is presenting as a good option for long-term investment with further capital growth potential.

LCP Private Office is more than just a buying agent. We help homeowners and investors acquire, renovate, design, let or manage their property in Prime Central London. Whatever your requirements, we are here to help. To arrange a call with one of our property experts, please click here.

Disclaimer: This report is published for general information and should not be relied upon in any way. No responsibility can be accepted by London Central Portfolio Limited for any loss or damage resulting from any use of the contents of this report. Any forward-looking statement involves known and unknown risks, which could differ materially from those expressed or implied.