Price growth in PCL, Greater London & England and Wales 

Liam Monaghan, Managing Director of LCP Private Office, comments on Prime Central London

Property prices across all markets saw a marginal decline in October. Prime Central London (PCL) values fell by -0.3%, with -0.2% decreases across Greater London and England & Wales. Annual change, however, paints a significantly more negative picture, with PCL prices down -4.2%, the most substantial year-on-year decline since Q2 2009.

Values in PCL have been decreasing steadily since 2022, with the level of annual decline now exceeding the -4% downturn forecasted for 2025 by the most prominent research teams in the sector. Determining whether we have reached the ‘bottom of the market’ is challenging, as we await the likely less-than-encouraging announcements expected next week.

Ongoing uncertainty in the lead up to the Autumn Budget has continued to dampen sentiment and transactional activity across all markets. The PCL market remains the most impacted, with annual sales down -24.2% in the 12 months to August, averaging just 56 transactions per week. House sales in PCL saw an even steeper decline of -32.8%, compared to -22.6% for flats, demonstrating the significant impact of uncertainty on the more discretionary, higher-value market.

We expect the Land Registry data to reflect a further decline in transactions during September and October, as many have chosen to sit tight and wait for clarity. We have, however, seen some cases of buyers and sellers accelerating their plans to get deals across the line before the Budget, in anticipation that the announcements could worsen their position.

We have also observed a notable increase in the number of investors circling at the lower end of the market in recent weeks, with many seeking to take advantage of the significant discounts currently available.

Prime Central London Performance By ‘Village’ and by property type

Flat and house prices continued to soften across all Central London villages in the 12 months to October. In the flat market, the most significant decreases were seen in Pimlico (-5.5%), closely followed by St James & Westminster (-5.2%) and Kensington (-5.1%). Values in South Kensington and Chelsea remain the furthest below their 2015 market peak, at -21.6% and -21.1% respectively.

House prices saw even steeper declines, with -6.4% in Belgravia, followed by -6.1% in Pimlico and -6% in St James & Westminster. For buyers seeking the best relative value compared to market peak, Knightsbridge, South Kensington and Chelsea currently offer some of the most compelling opportunities, with discounts of -13.7%, -13.6% and -13.4% respectively.

If you are interested in taking advantage of the exceptional value on offer in PCL, we would be delighted to hear from you.

LCP Private Office is more than just a buying agent. For over 35 years, we have helped homeowners and investors to acquire, renovate, design, let and manage property in Prime Central London. Whatever your requirements, we are here to help.

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Disclaimer: This report is published for general information and should not be relied upon in any way. No responsibility can be accepted by London Central Portfolio Limited for any loss or damage resulting from any use of the contents of this report. Any forward-looking statement involves known and unknown risks, which could differ materially from those expressed or implied.