Price growth in PCL, Greater London & England and Wales 

Liam Monaghan, Managing Director of LCP Private Office, comments on Prime Central London

The UK property market performed marginally better in 2024 than the previous year in terms of annual price growth, though transaction volumes were significantly reduced. Annual price growth for England & Wales was 2.4%, an improvement on the -1.3% price drop seen last year. Price growth in PCL was more negligible at 0.6%, with houses outperforming flats, owing to the demand for larger homes with outside space that dominated last year. The average house price in PCL is now £4,065,092, up 2.9% on the previous year, whereas flats experienced only 0.2% price growth, with the average value at £1,135,952.  

Transaction volumes remained low across the country in 2024, with Greater London experiencing the least significant decline of -20.5% translating in total to 1,148 transactions a week, in the year to October 24. PCL saw the most marked annual decrease in sales with just 54 transactions a week, -28.6% less than the same period the previous year. 

The PCL market was impacted by extended periods of national and global uncertainty, in the lead up to the General Election, followed by Labour’s first Budget in 14 years and the US election, which led many potential buyers and sellers to delay their decisions. Positively, we did see an uptick in demand from American buyers in the aftermath of the Trump victory, a trend we expect will continue this year.

The relatively low volume of new stock on the market last year helped to maintain pricing stability. However, there was still some pressure on sellers to adjust their expectations in the face of economic challenges, particularly as mortgage rates remained high for much of the year meaning buyers continued to be very price sensitive.

Overall, despite muted price growth and low transaction levels, the PCL market did exhibit some resilience and stability, with pockets of strong performance, particularly for prime properties in sought-after locations. The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with PCL price growth forecasts from the main estate agencies varying quite considerably, from pessimistic projections of -4% to conservative expectations of c.2% price growth. With further interest rate cuts expected and inflation reducing, we anticipate an improvement in buyer sentiment, more stability in the market and an uptick in transaction volumes. Indeed, LCP has had a busy start to the year with multiple new search enquiries from a variety of UK-based and international home buyers and investors.

Prime Central London Performance By ‘Village’ and by property type

Nearly all Prime Central London villages experienced price growth in 2024, except a handful which saw marginal negative growth in the flat market only, including Notting Hill & Holland Park, Bayswater and Kensington, with -1.2%, -0.6% and -0.2% price drops respectively. By contrast, the house market in Notting Hill saw the strongest price growth of 3.7% and is the only village where house prices have surpassed their 2015 peak, owing to its enduring popularity with both UK and international families

Values across all other PCL villages remain at a discount to their 2015 peak, particularly in the flat market with prime locations such as Marylebone, South Kensington and Chelsea showing the greatest discounts of -14.8%, -14% and -13.9% respectively. There are good deals to be had therefore within the PCL flat market, with the opportunity to purchase property at compelling prices now, in anticipation that values across PCL will increase by 10—15% over the next 5 years.

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Disclaimer: This report is published for general information and should not be relied upon in any way. No responsibility can be accepted by London Central Portfolio Limited for any loss or damage resulting from any use of the contents of this report. Any forward-looking statement involves known and unknown risks, which could differ materially from those expressed or implied.